“Dramatic” Wave Spreads Across Winnipeg!

I was looking for something to make fun of, so I looked a little closer at Hugh McFadyen’s quote from the Elmwood by-election:

The NDP have won more than 60 per cent of the vote in the constituency for at least the past three elections until its “dramatic slide” to just above 50 per cent Tuesday night, he said.

“Clearly there’s a pretty dramatic shift against the NDP, certainly in Elmwood, and it’s consistent with what we’re seeing across the city of Winnipeg,” McFadyen said.

Consistent accross the city, you say? Well, assuming that this dramatic wave sweeps across the city from Elmwood to all the far corners of Winnipeg….whatever would happen to the 2007 results? Here is 2007 replayed with growth rates from Elmwood: (Growth Rate is the percentage change in percentage of support. EG: Libs grew their percentage of the vote by 15.97%, so I take 2007 results for liberals and multiply by 1.1597.)

Dramatic Wave Sweeps In From Elmwood!
  NDP PC Lib
Assiniboia 4525 2699 531
Burrows 3313 1010 652
Charleswood 2275 4490 1288
Concordia 3375 1215 390
Elmwood 3385 1329 1277
Fort Garry 3750 2111 1740
Fort Rouge 3346 1208 2885
Fort Whyte 3404 6009 1898
Inkster 2061 546 4595
Kildonan 4381 2371 645
Kirkfield Park 4367 3880 1476
Lord Roberts 3932 1373 1414
Minto 2932 661 1343
Point Douglas 2329 483 685
Radisson 4199 3002 785
Riel 4277 2632 1188
River East 3766 4382 741
River Heights 1611 2352 5520
Rossmere 4227 2620 605
Seine River 5057 3291 1288
Southdale 5045 4514 1208
St. Boniface 4449 998 1217
St. James 3698 2355 761
St. Johns 3691 1023 700
St. Norbert 3535 2415 1249
St. Vital 4030 1762 900
The Maples 3161 1904 1076
Transcona 3986 1477 700
Tuxedo 2264 4001 2150
Wellington 2038 570 848
Wolseley 3529 718 838

Shizzam! Not a single constituency changes hands! None! How dramatic! But, nothing says drama like claiming victory in spite of terrible defeat. With victories like these, Hugh needs losses.

PS: Of course, this is academic. Boundaries have changed. But, the point is that it was a pathetic attempt to spin.

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5 responses to ““Dramatic” Wave Spreads Across Winnipeg!

  1. I’d just like to know what Hugh is smoking and where I can get some

  2. Really pathetic. Ultimately, that’s Hugh and the Tories’ problem. The party is being run by a bunch of middle schoolers. Say what you will about Filmon, he was able to surround himself with skilled backroomers who could win (the more cynical among us might say ‘rig’) elections (at least until they had to resign in disgrace).

    As I see it, there are really no differences between the PCs and the Liberals – weak leader, pathetically weak caucus, and weak party machinery. The difference is that the Tories have a rock-solid base of 30% of the voters – mostly cranky old white guys, holy rollers and rural rednecks – who will vote for the PC brand no matter what, while the Liberals have a base of 10% at best.

    Hugh needs to get some serious talent in the backrooms if they want to become contenders for power again. Here’s what a pro would have had him say last night:

    “I congratulate Bill Blaikie and Frank Whitehead on their wins tonight. Frankly, we knew we were in for an uphill battle in these seats, and so while we are disappointed, we are not particularly surprised by the outcome. I do want to say that I am very, very proud of Adrian Shultz and Edna Nabess, who worked very hard and put a lot of energy and effort into their campaigns. They are committed to their communities, they are great candidates and would be great MLAs. I hope they will continue to contribute to public life and to our party. The PC members in Elmwood and The Pas should be proud of the campaigns they ran, and I look forward to taking the fight to Gary Doer and the NDP in the next general election. Tonight’s by-elections did make one thing very clear: we are the only alternative to the NDP. If we keep working hard together, we will elect a Conservative government. Thank you.”

  3. Heh. Only good things happen can when they follow the words “I was looking for something to make fun of”!

  4. I was told it’s more like snorting, not smoking.

  5. Wow! what an idea ! What a concept ! Beautiful .. Amazing …

    rH3uYcBX

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