Orlikow-Currier By-Election Maps

I’ve finally taken the time to go over the data and map from the recent city council by-election in River Heights-Fort Garry Ward between John Orlikow and Geoff Currier.

The results are stunning. The best poll for Orlikow resulted in an incredible 88.3% to 11.7% and the worst for Orlikow is equally incredible – 20.2% to 79.8%. The 68.1% gap between Orlikow’s top poll and his worst poll is unheard of. For example, in Elmwood, where the provincial by-election vote is happening tonight, the NDP received between 50% and 73%, or a 23% gap between best and worst.

But, even more amazing, the map shows an incredible story…

Currier-Orlikow Extrema

Currier-Orlikow Extrema

The red-zone was dominated by Currier 70% to 30% while the blue zone was dominated by Orlikow 74% to 26%. That is an enormous gap. And, incredibly tied to location. There isn’t a mix of the blue and red. They are miles away.
And, the other results also tell the same story. Here are four maps showing a North-South pattern all the way:
over-70-orlikow1
60-to-70-orlikow
50-to-60-orlikow
40-to-50-orlikow
under-40-orlikow
Find The Pattern
There is such a strong North-South pattern here. Travelling North to South, we go from historic blowout for Orlikow to historic blowout for Currier. And, layered very neatly in between are all the other levels of support. This is a very well-ordered transition.
And, I am at a loss as to how to explain the North-South transition. Is it related to age of the neighborhood, like other un-expected things such as nutrition? Is there a correlation between density and support? Proximity to rivers? Is this pattern related to quality of public transportation (I note that I have visited Linden Woods by bus before and wouldn’t wish that ride on my worst enemy)?
I invite others to tell the North-South story. Currier would have us believe that the North is full of socialists. But, surely there is an explanation that isn’t juvenile. Can anyone explain this?
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10 responses to “Orlikow-Currier By-Election Maps

  1. Thanks for the very nice work

    My quick answer is Pavlov but a secondary answer is protectiveness. I think the possibility of change is very threatening.

    From a more scientific perspective have you considered age of mortgage?

    This might account for my first comments

  2. Love the work on the maps, but I can’t say I’m shocked by the split.

    North River Heights is the last stronghold of the Manitoba Liberals, so Orlikow was expected to clean up there.

    The further south you go, the less old money/old school RH residents you’ll find.

    Eventually, you get to Linden Woods, which has always turned out big numbers for the Conservatives.

    As for Fort Garry West, I’m not surprised it leans a little left. I’d guess that KIR has done well there in the past few provincial elections.

    I think these results also reflect the effort the candidates put into different areas. Orlikow spent a lot of time in Crescentwood and North River Heights. Currier was quite active in LW.

  3. @Frog:

    Thanks for the link, btw, from the CJOB crowd.

    Anyway, your answer doesn’t explain it all perfectly well. If its more PC in Lindenwoods and more Lib in River Heights, then why? What causes the gradient? What socio-economic factors help us to predict support for these two candidates that matches the pattern on the maps?

  4. It’s the gridded street neighbourhood vs. the cul de sac suburb. River Heights residents are unimpressed with candidates like Currier who are clearly uninterested in public transit, and are likely to continue rubberstamping sprawl developments that will ultimately be to the detriment of River Heights.

  5. Liberal Party strength and the Jewish vote are what that map shows.

  6. Great work on the maps, and layering them by every 10% mark.

    I would attribute the North side numbers to the fact that Orlikow was a school trustee (name recognition) for that area (WSD #1, Ward One includes River Heights, Crescentwood and everything to the Right until the rivers, but nothing to the South of Grant).

    Currier only had name recognition via his CJOB audience which includes Linden Woods, but besides Orlikow probably didn’t focus too much on that area whereas Currier might have.

  7. Echoing the others, great job on this.

  8. Thanks, everyone, for the compliments.

    But, I’m slightly unsatisfied with my analysis because I’m struggling to explain such a huge, yet steady progression from North to South. The Jewish vote seems like a very poor explanation – they do not make up so large a percentage of the population of River Heights to make such a mark, nor are they some uniform group that all vote one way. The Lib/Con explanation just begs the question of why there are more Libs to the North and more Cons to the south. The name-recognition has some sense to it, but could that explain 88% in the northern most poll and 20% in the southern most poll? I doubt it.

    So, I guess what I’m asking is what’s in the water in the North and South….what factors exist to make this area a caleidescope of left to right?

  9. I’ll venture age of mortgage, like unclebob said…

  10. Maybe it’s old, secure money in the north, and new, leverage money in the south?

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