Elmwood Predictions

Elmwood By-election day has arrived. Check out here for past results and post your prediction of results and turnout below…

Candidates:

Beddome, James (Green)

Blaikie, Bill (NDP)

Schulz, Adrian (PC) 

Wolfrom, Regan (Liberal)

 

My own prediction is that this is going NDP. The big question is by how much. Looking over last election’s numbers, they won every poll – with the worst poll at 50% and the best at 73%. I swear to you all that I’ve looked at the numbers and can’t find a pattern. There is nowhere (North, South, East, West) in the constituency that is much worse or better for the NDP. The only pattern is NDP victory across the board with 61% for Maloway in 2007.

Welsh is right: the percentages here will matter. If the NDP drops a lot, despite big name Bill Blaikie and despite being in one of the safest locations in the province (They even held here in 1988), this will send a signal.

Predict away………

UPDATE (8:15pm): Here are the predictions received in full.

  donaldstreet Graham Bob Chris SB ghoris unclebob Phil Average
Beddome (Green) 5% 3% 4% 8% 4% 5% 7.5% 5% 5%
Blaikie (NDP) 48% 45% 58% 55% 39.1% 60% 50% 42% 50%
Shulz (PC) 15% 12% 14% 12% 18% 20% 7.5% 8% 13%
Wolfrom (Lib) 32% 45% 24% 25% 38.9% 15% 35% 45% 32%
                   
Turnout 31% 42% 34% 29% 43% 35% 36%   36%

 

Check here for official results.

 

UPDATE (9:47): One poll left to go. Blaikie wins with a solid 54%, so far. The turnout is down a lot: 36.6% so far, but that number is skewed by a 1000 voter drop in renumeration from 2007! The only big gain is the Greens: they went for 0% to 5%. The Libs and PCs are up a whole 1% from 2007. I’ll have to post another day when final results are in.

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23 responses to “Elmwood Predictions

  1. And since it’s my blog, here is the first prediction:

    Beddome (Green) – 5%
    Blaikie (NDP) – 48%
    Shulz (PC) – 15%
    Wolfrom (Lib) – 32%

    Turnout – a dismal 31%

  2. Turnout 42%

    Beddome 3 %
    Shultz 12%
    Wolfrom 40%
    Blaikie 45%

  3. Turnout 34%

    Beddome GREEN 4%
    Shulz PC 14%
    Wolfrom LIBERAL 24%
    Blaikie NDP 58%

  4. Weather’s a bit poor…

    Turnout 29%

    Beddome – 8%
    Blaikie – 55%
    Shulz – 12%
    Wolfrom -25%

  5. 43% turnout

    Beddome 4%

    Schulz 18%

    Blaikie 39%

    Wolfrom 39 %

    Too close to call.

    It is

  6. The NDP always has a great GOTV machine, especially in by-elections. Wolfrom might be running a good campaign, but he may as well be running for the Natural Law Party.

    Blaikie – 60%
    Schulz – 20%
    Wolfrom – 15%
    Beddome – 5%

    Turnout 35%

  7. Don’t know percentages, but the Tories finish second behind the NDP. The Liberals finish third.

  8. @ghoris: Agreed.

    GOTV is the key, especially in the rain for a byelection that has the public appearance of being decided. If I’m a voter who votes every time – this might be the one time I say “Who cares. Blaikie will win anyway. And, its only a by-election. And, its cold.” So, turout will be terrible and get-out-the-vote will be everything.

    @SB: You will with be crowned a genius or fool in 5 hours. I salute the courage.

  9. Ok I have been branded worse

    Turnout 36%

    Elmwood Bill 50%

    Ragin’ Regan 35%

    Jimmy the Green 7.5%

    Shultzi 7.5%

  10. too slippery for the old folks to get out to vote (bad news for Blaikie) then 30 to 50 crowd in the area is with Wolfrom The youngers never vote (bad for Beddome) the tory is a joke so.
    Wolfrom 2300
    Blaikee 2150
    Schultz 400
    Beddome 250

  11. The NDP GOTV

  12. The NDP GOTV effort will drive the old folks to the voting booth. Isn’t the area have most of the old folks in hi-rises with the polling booth in the building ? Don’t think the Liberals will quite make it here. Phil is wrong the tory will get 1000 votes.
    I am going to say an NDP win here by 200 votes ….., better cover my bets so I don’t look like a fool.

  13. Death-bed conversion, SB? It’s still 40 minutes till polls close, so we’ll accept the clarification. You’re now into safe territory with the 200-vote hedge, methinks.

  14. SB
    one of us could be insane or you could be jim cotton

  15. There is no way a Liberal candidate is going to get 2300 votes in Elmwood, and in a by-election to boot. Heck, in 2007 they only got 3,900 votes in all of northeast Winnipeg. The Liberal Party in Manitoba has absolutely zero brand appeal and no profile – at least in a general election they manage to get some coverage in the media. A strong candidate and ground campaign are usually worth a 5 percent bump over the generic party brand, maybe a bit more if they are really exceptional. It doesn’t help when you’re starting with a base of about 10 percent.

    Yes, upsets happen in by-elections, but I do not detect anything close to the sort of anti-NDP groundswell that would be required to produce one here. The real fight will be for second place. Mr. Wolfrom deserves it more, but has the albatross of the dead Manitoba Liberal brand dragging him down.

  16. Polls have now closed. Best of luck to all predictors.

    Check here for results.

  17. Final numbers are in:

    Blaikie (NDP) 2325 – 53.6%
    Schulz (PC) 913 – 21.0%
    Wolfrom (L) 877 – 20.2%
    Beddome (G) 210 – 4.8%

    Turnout – 37.0%

    Looks like I overestimated Blaikie and underestimated Wolfrom slightly, but otherwise was pretty much on the money. Now why can’t I pick winning 6/49 numbers???? 🙂

  18. Aw darn. I suppose being optimistic for a candidate doesn’t help you much in predictions 😛

  19. The new democrats won big tonight. I judged by the signs and it appears that was misleading. unclebob must be insane because my initials will tell you who I am.

  20. From the FreeP:

    “Clearly there’s a pretty dramatic shift against the NDP, certainly in Elmwood, and it’s consistent with what we’re seeing across the city of Winnipeg,” McFadyen said.

    That is the ultimate WTF moment. Their PC candidate gained 0.2% more than last election! The NDP are down 7.3%. That’s it. And, almost all of that drop is to the Greens (+4.8%), who had no candidate last time. So, if the Libs and PC get a combined 2.5% boost, this is taken by Hugh to be dramatic. I’d hate to see what would happen if the PC had gained a massive 2% (ten times what they did gain)! Hugh might have had a heart attack.

    If you campaign on the basis of the government losing support and you not gaining support then you are permanently running for leader of the opposition.

  21. Pingback: Spin in Elmwood « Don Street Blog

  22. I remind myself again, the vast number of people do not use the internet for help in their decision making as much as they do “optics” and talking to actual people pounding the doors…I think that grassroots campaigning works, just don’t trust the internet to do the work than a warm handshake and a frank discussion can…

  23. @Chris:

    Yet, some internet-based campaigns have been highly successful. So, there is some science to it. There needs to be a combination of web and real-world campaigning that fits the division. In the federal election, I had found a lot of people in Elmwood who had no internet access and many more who didn’t really know how to use it well. That hurt us because we didn’t have the budget to print enough flyers nor the people to knock on every door. So, getting the word out was tough.

    In some other areas, quality websites can have an effect.

    And, while the warm handshake is also effective, I’m reminded of the 4-P’s of Marketing: Product, Place, Position, Promotion. As my marketing prof once told me, all the place, position, and promotion in the world won’t help you if you don’t have a good Product.

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