Orlikow-Currier Poll-by-Poll breakdown: data needed!

The by-election victory for John Orlikow (presumably 57-43, with a shockingly low turnout) numbers at the official site do not add up. There were apparently 8848 voters who came to the polls and 7691 votes cast for Orlikow and Currier combined (4392 and 3299, respectively). Curtis points out the discrepency and wonders why.  

Checking the results carefully, though, we see that not all the polls had a by-election for both city council and Winnipeg School Division. So, the turnout numbers on the website are skewed. Only some of the 54,901 voters were voting in the Orlikow-Currier race. The Free Press article, by Bart Kives, corrects the situation:

“Only 7,691 of 35,015 eligible voters bothered to vote, which translates into a voter turnout of 22 per cent, city election official Marc Lemoine said.”

So, only 35,015 of the 54,901 voters in the two seperate by-elections were voting in the council race. Thus, Orlikow received 12.5% of eligible-voters’ votes, or 57% of 22%. Currier got 9.4% of eligible-voters’ votes, or 43% of 22%.

Still, I need more data. The poll-by-poll results on the official page show incredible differences of opinion in different poll locations. In one poll, RG36, Orlikow received 78%. In another, RG13, 31%. That’s incredible. I was looking at the Elmwood Provincial numbers for a coming post and there is nothing even close to this kind of massive gap: the best NDP poll was 73% and the worst 50%.

But, I don’t know poll locations. Does anyone have that link? If so, I can analyse the info fully and (to borrow from Currier) locate those dirty socialists in these bourgeois neighborhoods.


5 responses to “Orlikow-Currier Poll-by-Poll breakdown: data needed!

  1. Found the map. That should be interesting to look at later.

    Now, does anyone know how many registered voters there were in each poll?

  2. Hmm… Elmwood By-Election piece… I’m intrigued.

  3. Not ready yet, Regan.

    Although, I’ll tell you that the numbers don’t look good for you. I was looking for any pattern, any areas with less or more turnout, less or more NDP support, etc. But, the big pattern in past results is that the NDP wins every poll, and a majority in every poll. They get between 50% and 73%, and there isn’t a single area where they fall apart. Even between the river and Henderson, there is not a large difference than Elmwood as a whole.

    Anyway, the numbers tell such a bland story that I was even thinking of just not posting about them. But, I’m sure you knew that the odds were against you already!

  4. Actually, the odds are getting better every day… I think you’ll find the new poll numbers after March 24th far more interesting. 🙂

  5. Well, Regan. We’ll see. I’m always of the belief that a small group can change the world if they can tell a positive story and get their message out. But, I’ve also been looking at the numbers and, man, there is little room for you to be optimistic.

    But, best of luck.

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