Musical Chairs

Mary Welch takes a look at the redistribution of seats in Winnipeg and does a fairly decent job of summarizing the more interesting areas.

Unfortunately, not enough poll-by-poll analysis is done – as I did here and here for the new constituency of Logan. In my analysis, I took the poll results and was able to conclude that the new constituency was indeed “new”, constructed from four previous constituencies, with 38% of registered voters and 47% of votes cast from old Fort Rouge; 7%/6% from Minto; 35%/31% from Point Douglas; and, 20%/15% from the old Wellington.

Yet, there is no such analysis in the Free Press piece for Tyndall Park, where Inkster incumbent Kevin Lamoreux will run. (The vast majority of Inkster is not located in Tyndall Park – but how much? And, what were the combined results? Does Lamoreux stand a chance? This can be checked with only an hour’s work.) As well, there is an assumption made that Flor Marcelino’s Wellington constituency has been split evenly enough that she could pick and choose from either Tyndall Park or Logan. But, a quick check of the numbers shows that only 15.83% (692/4371) of votes cast in Wellington in 2007 were cast in the new Logan. Thus, 84% of all votes in Wellington are located elsewhere – presumably mostly in Tyndall Park. So, is Flor Marcelino considering where to run on the basis of affinity to an area, residency, and other factors or is she waiting to see what other incumbents do? These questions should be asked.

In the south of the city, a bizarre assumption is made regarding Diane McGifford and Kerri Irvin-Ross. The article claims that “Much of McGifford’s riding will be absorbed south into the Fort Garry riding now represented by Healthy Living Minister Kerri Irvin-Ross”. But, does that mean that Fort Garry is more than 1.5 constituencies? In fact, the numbers here could again be checked meticulously. What percent of votes cast and registered voters of the new Fort Garry-Riverview is from the old Fort Garry and what are the percentages from the old Lord Roberts? Is the above quote accurate? Or, did Lord Roberts “absorb” Fort Garry? This question could be answered today by the Free Press. (or by readers of Don Street) The wording in the article suggests a reality that is yet to be shown – and could be shown conclusively.

So – I’ll put a shout-out to the bloggers of Winnipeg. Can you repeat my study of Logan in your areas? Take the new map and the 2007 results (results here, here, and here). Go poll-by-poll and work out the new results. Then, we’ll have a good idea of where things really stand.

In the end, my original assumptions about Logan mostly hold. The Free Press seems to confirm Swan in Minto, Howard in Fort Rouge, Hickes in Point Douglas (not mentioned, but again assumed despite numbers which show he could go either to Logan or PD – again, unassessed). If Marcelino goes to where her base of support from the last election lies, then there is an incumbent fight in Tyndall Park and an open seat in Logan. If Marcelino moves to Logan, then there are numerous unanswered questions which I will have to discuss at another time.

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4 responses to “Musical Chairs

  1. I could go so far as to do a complete Elmwood study, but I don’t know if that will happen anytime soon. So here are some general impressions delivered in pundit-like fashion:

    The strongest areas in Elmwood in 2007 for the PCs are mostly a part of Rossmere now, while the polls that are being added from Concordia don’t make up the loss.

    So if the PCs want to take Elmwood at some point in the future, they’ll need either a large decline in the fortunes of the NDP or a very strong candidate.

    I don’t think I can say much about the Liberal numbers without losing my objectivity… I’ve heard that the Liberal candidate in Elmwood is pretty good… 🙂

  2. Your analysis was impressive, Don St, but I think it all means jack unless McFadyen stops treating voters like children and puts together an intelligent platform and campaign. So one seat goes to the Tories and one seat goes to the NDP … the big picture probably won’t change a great deal the way things are going.

  3. @cherenkov: Thanks for the complement. I agree that the actual options presented on the ballot will have a major impact on the results, btw. If things continue to go the way they have, then the NDP are still the clear favorites. The Tories need to put together a serious vision for the future if they hope to retake government.

  4. I’ve taken a brief look at St James riding, it lost a little to the Northwest (the old army housing north of Ness bordering Moray. many younger families) and gained the tip of Wolseley up to the Mennonite Church and Minto up to Valour…whats interesting is that while the NDP lost voters, they gained them all back..but there is a small pocket of PC-dom north of Sargent Avenue by Valour…As you suggest, maybe a better platform and “vision” could get the PC’s a long way…

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