Rise of the High-Rises

Logan with 2007 pollsI’ve been looking again at the new constituency of Logan, and I’ve made a map of the polls for 2007. Using the data from Election 2007 (available here, here, and here), we can draw many conclusions about the center of gravity in my new constituency.

 

First, I’ll note that roughly half the polls of the constiuency are either entirely or predominently apartments, many of which are large high rises such as the Holiday Towers (Fort Rouge polls 2 and3), Broadview Manor (FR poll 4), and the Fort Gary apartments (FR polls 6, 7, and 8). The other half are dominated by housing – though mostly old, poor rental units. We can draw a line through the center of the constituency thus dividing it into downtown apartments to the South and detacted housing to the North:

The Apartment-House Equator

Behold: The Apartment-House Equator

Notice the island in ex-Point-Douglas poll number 29. That’s the high-rise in China Town. Also, although part of PD #44 is included, no residences fall in the new border, so that poll’s results are excluded. Note finally that this line isn’t perfect, but a good discriptor nonetheless. That said, below the line, we have 65.9% of the registered voters (3329), but 74.2% of the votes (6620).

Now, let’s have some fun with the numbers. Ignoring the discrepencies in wealth, education, income, and other socio-economic factors between North and South Logan – let’s use the turnout numbers in the last election and see if they fit the above equator.

First, then, are those polls with turnout above 50%:

logan-with-2007-polls-superimposed-plus-turnout-over-50

We can notice a few things right away. First, all the polls with high turnout are south of the border, in the apartment zone. Second, they are nearly a perfect map of the major high-rise units in the downtown. From my building(Broadview Manor)’s 79% turnout to the apartments behind Portage Place to China Town, we see almost all of them. And, the exceptions are telling: the large apartments south of Assiniboine fail to make the cut at 49.3% turnout, Place Promenade behind Portage Place is also in the 40s, and the major high-rise near Hargrave & Assiniboine (Poll 12) was under extensive renovations and the list there is suspect.

These tiny little islands of density make up a 35.0% of the registered voters, but 49.5% of the votes cast! Look again at that map and consider that half of all votes come from those tiny coloured areas. When we add in the other high-rises and factor in the future residents on Hargrave and at the soon-to-be-complete York, the Hotel building – then we have a very urban-centric constituency, perhaps the first truly downtown seat.

But, there is more. Adding the next eschelon of turnout, we get:

logan-with-2007-polls-superimposed-plus-turnout-over-40

Notice that we’ve finally added polls from the Northern house-dwelling half of Logan and the first polls taken from Wellington and Minto. But, they are not as big as they seem. The one poll from Wellington (poll 21) had only 104 votes cast, the two Minto polls (13 and 15) cast 189 votes, and the denser high-rises (all the rest of the highlites above)  cast 2664 votes.

By that map above, we’ve seen two thirds of all votes from 2007 – nearly entirely contributed from downtown apartments in East-Broadway, Central Park, and Chinatown. And, again, there are a couple more towers to be filled.

Finally, let’s look at the map from 2007 with all turnout categories highlighted and with the return of our Apartment-House Dividing Line:

logan-with-2007-polls-superimposed-plus-turnout-over-30-and-apart-line

Now, we have all the necessary data on the map. The areas with lowest turnout and lowest socio-economic status mostly lie to the north. The areas with higher turnout are in the southern dense high-rises. The detached houses from Wellington, Minto, and part of Point Douglas make up 34.1% of the constituency’s population, but have a combined turnout of 33.9%! That horrendous turnout means that the areas north of the dividing line contribute 1/4 of the votes from 2007. Add the new high-rises and the fact that Wellington had a larger turnout in 2007 due to the NDP controversies, and you have a Downtown Constituency.

That suggests that an independent-minded, urban-focussed, pro-(real)rapid transit candidate could come in here and shake things up. There is no incumbent and the sky’s the limit for Manitoba’s first high-density, high-rise constituency.

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6 responses to “Rise of the High-Rises

  1. When you crunch the party support numbers you see it is an even safer NDP seat than before. Close to 60%. A NDP hack will run away with the seat.

  2. @Brodie:

    I’m going to crunch those numbers in my next and final post on Logan. The numbers for the NDP are at 55% overall, but they are dramatically skewed by the results out of Point Douglas. The PD numbers are at 68% NDP, but this is a consequence of the George Hickes steam-roller. Take him away and the NDP will still do well in that area, but how well? How would those areas respond to other options?

    More importantly, third party candidates (6% Green) and Liberals (16%) also do well, suggesting some independent streaks in the area.

    Finally, with turnout at 44% overall, there is a strong possibility of a non-NDP campaign working overtime to secure the area.

    As for whether the NDP runs a “hack” (not this Hack?) or not also affects the results. If they run a loser of a candidate, they could have strong competition. If they put forward a strong candidate, Logan’s undoubtedly their turf.

    Remember that nothing is guarunteed in politics – look at Alcock vs. Bruinooge or the NDP in Edmonton this year for some of the many examples. Give a strong, urban-minded candidate 3 years to build a base here and you could see a change.

  3. Too bad it looks like a candidate just like this has turned his sites to River-Heights Fort Gary.

  4. Very true, brodie. But, is Paul Hesse the only such candidate?

  5. This is beautiful work, Don. I actually envision a more Wolsely-like riding than you envision…I think that most people living iun those high rises don’t go to the UofM and rapid transit won’t be an issue…the main issues will be crime, downtown revitalization, and social service access.

  6. Pingback: Musical Chairs « Don Street Blog

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