The New Logan

The modern Library of Alexandria known as wikipedia informs us that Logan was once a provincial constituency from 1956 to 1989. Interestingly, this was the final seat held by Stephen Juba as an independent – a seat he held while Mayor of Winnipeg in order to defend the interests of the city.

Juba had also been an MLA prior to becoming Mayor back before there were individual constituencies in Winnipeg. The 1953 election saw Juba elected in “Winnipeg Centre”, which was a large area of the city to be represented by 4 MLAs, selected by preferential ballot and with single transferable ballots. Christopher Adams details all of “Winnipeg’s Odd Electoral System(s)” in his new book, Politics in Manitoba: Parties, Leaders, and Voters (see pages 10 to 13). The experimentation with different models of electing MLAs is an interesting history which I will have to explore at another time.

Following Juba, Logan elected a series of CCF and NDP members until it was split into parts in 1989’s redistribution. Since then, there has been no downtown Winnipeg constituency, until now:

The New Logan, 2008 Redistribution

The New Logan, 2008 Redistribution

I’ve begun to look into the new ‘hood and see that it is largely taken from Fort Rouge and Point Douglas, with a healthy dose of Wellington and a dash of Minto thrown in. Here’s the map again with the Election 2007 boundaries superimposed:

New Logan, with 2007 boundaries superimposed

New Logan, with 2007 boundaries superimposed

When I had first considered the new boundaries, I had not realized just how much of Point Douglas had been taken to make the new turf. In fact, the breakdown of registered voters in each area – using the individual polls results here, here, and here – is as follows:

Parent Constituency Registered Voters Percent
Fort Rouge 3859 38.4%
Minto 739 7.4%
Point Douglas 3466 34.5%
Wellington 1975 19.7%
TOTAL 10039 100.0%

But, those numbers are deceiving. While the areas outside of Fort Rouge have many registered voters, they also have terrible turnout. (I’m proud to report that my building has the best turnout (79%) of the 48 polls in Logan) Here are the underwhelming turnout numbers for polls within the new Logan:

Parent Constituency Votes Cast Turnout
Fort Rouge 2116 54.8%
Minto 282 38.2%
Point Douglas 1399 40.4%
Wellington 692 35.0%
TOTAL 4489 44.7%

Looking only at the votes cast, instead of registered voters, Fort Rouge contributes a large plurality of votes in the new Logan:

Parent Constituency Votes Cast % of Logan Votes
Fort Rouge 2116 47.1%
Minto 282 6.3%
Point Douglas 1399 31.2%
Wellington 692 15.4%
TOTAL 4489 100.0%

However, that doesn’t even tell the whole story. The polls taken from Point Douglas fall mostly into three areas: Central Park, Centennial and the high-rise apartments near Portage Place. In Centennial, we have turnout of about 26.1%. In Central Park, 47.8%. But, in high-rises around Portage Place, 63.0%.

So, the downtown high-rises could dominate this new constituency, with turnout in the northern half ranging from 26% to 38%.

As for whether or not we will have an incumbent, my bet is the George Hickes will continue to run in Point Douglas, Flor Marcelino will run in the new Tyndall Park, Andrew Swan will stay in Minto, and Jennifer Howard will remain in Fort Rouge.

So, we may have an open seat with some of the worst turnout in the province, dominated by downtown highrises – a great opportunity for a new candidate to come out and defend the interests of the core: promote better public transportation, safer streets, better/safer walking and cycling routes in the downtown, and much more downtown housing. Perhaps its time to bring in an independent voice – a return to the days of Stephen Juba.

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6 responses to “The New Logan

  1. Don’t know that an independent can win in Logan. Juba was crushed in 1981 when he tried to run there.

    The last time the NDP was ever threatened in the least was when I ran in 1988.

  2. Wow… I knew you liked examining poll counts, but I didn’t realize that it had gotten this bad 🙂 Let me know if you want to come to Elmwood to crunch some numbers for me.

    Isn’t there a young man living on Donald Street who would make an excellent candidate for the next general? I heard he had just recently managed a highly successful campaign.

  3. Thanks, Regan, but the question should read “Isn’t there a young man living on Donald Street who would want to be a candidate for the next general?” Plus, Regan, you haven’t seen my next post which is intense poll-reading fun.

    @JD: Do you have the results of that race and/or the map of the historic Logan?

  4. Donstreet

    Here are the results in 1988.

    Logan:

    * (x)Maureen Hemphill (NDP) 2646
    * John Dobbin (L) 1660
    * Linda Thomson (PC) 1085
    * Barry Marchand (Ind) 81
    * Frank Goldspink (Comm) 46

    The old map is here:

    Took in all of Point Douglas.

    I lost out in the senior residences. I figure three or four more days and the riding might have gone the other way. Hemphill didn’t run after that election.

  5. Thanks for the visual, John. What’s striking to me is that Winnipeg 2008 has 1.5 fewer ridings in the North-West quadrant and 1.5 more ridings in the South-West. Very interesting.

    That Winnipeg results map sure contrasts with the rest of the province as well. In the same book by Adams cited above, he describes the Liberals – the half-party of our two-and-a-half party system – as the “Winnipeg party”, and this is obvious there.

    Finally, though, JD, I see now that the new Logan occupies a very different area of Winnipeg than it did in 1988. It appears to not have included both Central Park and downtown. I will be posting results from 2007 shortly which show that these areas are going to dominate the constituency.

    Thanks again for the info!

  6. Pingback: Rise of the High-Rises « Don Street Blog

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