How did we stack up?

As promised, here’s a bit of analysis of how our predictions compared to the actual outcome of the federal election.  The top half is the predictions received, which were posted here just before official results were available.  The bottom half shows how we stacked up against some other, more famous, pundits.  Special thanks to calgarygrit for having these predictions in one handy location.

I’m pleased to announce that the co-authors of this blog, Rob (that’s me) & Mike, tied for first place.  It’s worth mentioning that Mike did submit two predictions – one several days before election day and one several hours before polls closed (marked with an asterix).  Anyways, congratulations to both of us, but especially me!

 

  Conservatives Liberals Bloc NDP Green Ind/Oth TOTAL VARIANCE RANK
OUTCOME 143 76 50 37 0 2 308 0
Rob 134 84 49 39 1 1 308 22 1
Mike 153 70 48 34 1 2 308 22 1
Mike* 133 84 53 35 1 2 308 24 3
Lorelei* 127 95 48 36 1 1 308 40 4
Katherine 130 95 48 31 1 3 308 42 5
Janine* 128 96 48 31 3 2 308 46 6
Daniel 130 93 38 45 0 2 308 50 7
Melissa* 121 104 46 32 2 3 308 62 8
Maria 116 107 49 33 1 2 308 64 9
Marc* 122 106 45 31 2 2 308 64 9
Evan 120 110 40 35 1 2 308 70 11
Ekos 136 84 51 35 0 2 308 18 1
Barry Kay 135 87 51 33 0 2 308 24 2
Andrew Coyne 133 88 51 34 0 2 308 26 3
UBC Stock Market 131 89 47 39 0 2 308 30 4
David Akin 128 84 50 43 1 2 308 30 4
Democratic Space 128 92 52 34 0 2 308 36 6
Kady O’Malley 129 91 53 33 0 2 308 36 6
electionprediction.org 125 94 51 36 0 2 308 38 8
Scott Reid 124 82 58 43 0 1 308 40 9
Andrew Steele 121 90 50 44 0 3 308 44 10
Our Average 129 95 47 35 1 2 308 46 11

 

Some Analysis

Almost everyone grossly underestimated how many seats the Conservatives would pick up.  Most of us overestimated how many seats the Liberals would win.  However, many of our predictions for Bloc and NDP seats were reasonably close.  With the exception of Daniel, all of us were optimistic that the Greens would get at least one seat.

Comparing our average prediction with other predictions is a pretty sorry story.  We finished dead last.  However, if we take the top three predictions in our group – Rob, Mike and Mike-tardy – would place second, second and tied for third.  Not too bad.

Thanks everyone for participating.  Now how long until we get to do this all over again…

-robondon
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4 responses to “How did we stack up?

  1. Man, I did terrible. But really, the Conservatives didn’t get any more votes than the last election, it was more that the Liberal support dropped. Horray apathy.

  2. Wait for the Dossanj recount! The stakes are high!

  3. Yes, I should have added a disclaimer that results are not final until all recounts have been completed. It’s not like me to miss a good disclaimer opportunity.

  4. Pingback: Breaking News on the Election Prediction Front « Don Street Blog

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