As promised, here’s a bit of analysis of how our predictions compared to the actual outcome of the federal election. The top half is the predictions received, which were posted here just before official results were available. The bottom half shows how we stacked up against some other, more famous, pundits. Special thanks to calgarygrit for having these predictions in one handy location.
I’m pleased to announce that the co-authors of this blog, Rob (that’s me) & Mike, tied for first place. It’s worth mentioning that Mike did submit two predictions – one several days before election day and one several hours before polls closed (marked with an asterix). Anyways, congratulations to both of us, but especially me!
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Almost everyone grossly underestimated how many seats the Conservatives would pick up. Most of us overestimated how many seats the Liberals would win. However, many of our predictions for Bloc and NDP seats were reasonably close. With the exception of Daniel, all of us were optimistic that the Greens would get at least one seat.
Comparing our average prediction with other predictions is a pretty sorry story. We finished dead last. However, if we take the top three predictions in our group – Rob, Mike and Mike-tardy – would place second, second and tied for third. Not too bad.
Thanks everyone for participating. Now how long until we get to do this all over again…-robondon