Sober 2nd Choices

The Ekos poll from September 19th is interesting because it tracks second choices. What strikes me is how tight the race is if you add the first and second choices.

Party First Choice Second Choice Total
CPC 36% 10% 46%
LPC 25% 17% 42%
NDP 18% 19% 37%
Green 13% 15% 28%
Bloq 8% 4% 12%

What this table shows is that if the Conservatives have an amazing campaign from here on out, they can increase their vote total by about a quarter to a third. On the other hand, the NDP and Greens could both double their totals with a solid campaign, the Liberals could add two thirds, the BQ 50%. So, it seems like its the Conservatives’ Election to loose.

Will one of the parties finally step up and deliver a message that is going to move the polls?

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2 responses to “Sober 2nd Choices

  1. I people actually voted with for what they really belived in the NDP and Greens would both be getting 20% + of the vote and the Liberal Party, the place where people (I am guilty of this too) just park their vote cause they prefer them to the Tories would be a regional Toronto party.

  2. Very true, James. Now let’s go down memory lane…

    I worked for two years during high school at the Angus Reid Group, a public opinion research company. I was always asking the voting preference question, and it stunned me how imprecise the measure can be. Someone would say, “I like the PC, but we need to defeat the Reform party, but I also Chretien, except that in my area its a fight between Reform and NDP, and so I’d vote NDP.” And, I’d sit there stunned. And it would go on and on. PC voters who would vote Reform to get rid of Liberals. Reform voters who would actually vote Liberal to elliminate the PC, etc, etc. At least a third of all people polled would say something like the above.

    It’s become a game that we play, not a choice based on policies. That’s why I support some form of Proportional Representation. Our current system does not accurately reflect public opinion.

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