I’ve finally taken the time to go over the data and map from the recent city council by-election in River Heights-Fort Garry Ward between John Orlikow and Geoff Currier.
The results are stunning. The best poll for Orlikow resulted in an incredible 88.3% to 11.7% and the worst for Orlikow is equally incredible – 20.2% to 79.8%. The 68.1% gap between Orlikow’s top poll and his worst poll is unheard of. For example, in Elmwood, where the provincial by-election vote is happening tonight, the NDP received between 50% and 73%, or a 23% gap between best and worst.
But, even more amazing, the map shows an incredible story…
(more…)
Categories: Uncategorized
Elmwood By-election day has arrived. Check out here for past results and post your prediction of results and turnout below…
Candidates:
Beddome, James (Green)
Blaikie, Bill (NDP)
Schulz, Adrian (PC)
Wolfrom, Regan (Liberal)
My own prediction is that this is going NDP. The big question is by how much. Looking over last election’s numbers, they won every poll – with the worst poll at 50% and the best at 73%. I swear to you all that I’ve looked at the numbers and can’t find a pattern. There is nowhere (North, South, East, West) in the constituency that is much worse or better for the NDP. The only pattern is NDP victory across the board with 61% for Maloway in 2007.
Welsh is right: the percentages here will matter. If the NDP drops a lot, despite big name Bill Blaikie and despite being in one of the safest locations in the province (They even held here in 1988), this will send a signal.
Predict away………
UPDATE (8:15pm): Here are the predictions received in full.
| |
donaldstreet |
Graham |
Bob |
Chris |
SB |
ghoris |
unclebob |
Phil |
Average |
| Beddome (Green) |
5% |
3% |
4% |
8% |
4% |
5% |
7.5% |
5% |
5% |
| Blaikie (NDP) |
48% |
45% |
58% |
55% |
39.1% |
60% |
50% |
42% |
50% |
| Shulz (PC) |
15% |
12% |
14% |
12% |
18% |
20% |
7.5% |
8% |
13% |
| Wolfrom (Lib) |
32% |
45% |
24% |
25% |
38.9% |
15% |
35% |
45% |
32% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Turnout |
31% |
42% |
34% |
29% |
43% |
35% |
36% |
|
36% |
Check here for official results.
UPDATE (9:47): One poll left to go. Blaikie wins with a solid 54%, so far. The turnout is down a lot: 36.6% so far, but that number is skewed by a 1000 voter drop in renumeration from 2007! The only big gain is the Greens: they went for 0% to 5%. The Libs and PCs are up a whole 1% from 2007. I’ll have to post another day when final results are in.
Categories: Uncategorized
